New shop, 6.25 percent market: chase purchase volume or build the investor and private book first?
Working out the first eighteen months of a brokerage and the two paths look genuinely different, not just in marketing but in what the P&L looks like.
Conventional purchase lane. Average file where I am is around a $380,000 loan. Compensation in the range of 1.5 to 2 percent depending on structure, so call it $5,700 to $7,600 gross per closing, and the files are standardized enough that a processor can carry most of the work. Referral sources are agents, and there are a finite number of good ones who are already covered. The problem is that purchase volume is soft with the 30-year near 6.25 and refi is close to dead, so I would be fighting for share of a shrunken pool against people with ten years of agent relationships. Cycle turns and this lane comes roaring back, but I can't put a date on that.
Investor and private lane. Bridge, DSCR, fix and flip, small balance commercial. Loan sizes are often smaller, $150,000 to $400,000, and points can run higher, though a meaningful share of files die and dead files pay nothing. The work per file is much heavier and much less delegable, because you're solving structure rather than filling in a form. What you get in exchange is repeat borrowers. One decent flipper doing six a year is six files, and he calls you rather than the other way round. Private credit has been growing fast enough that the lender bench keeps expanding, and knowing that bench cold is a real asset that a rate cycle doesn't erase.
The case against starting in the investor lane is that it's slow to build, the borrowers are demanding, and you can burn a year learning a lender roster while your competitors bank purchase commissions. The case against starting conventional is that you spend two years building a book that a direct-to-consumer platform can undercut on a commodity 30-year fixed.
I genuinely don't know. Curious where the room lands, especially from people who've been on the borrower side of both.
First eighteen months for a new brokerage in this rate environment, where should the effort go?
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