Seller wants a blended 86 on four notes, and one of them is the problem
A seller I've bought two singles from is offering four seasoned performing firsts as a pool, all or nothing. Total UPB $312,000, blended ask 86, so $268,320.
A: UPB 96,400, coupon 8.5%, P&I 876, 214 months left, 44 payments on time, BPO 179,000, ITV 54%. B: UPB 88,200, 7.875%, 741, 232 months, 51 payments, BPO 152,000, ITV 58%. C: UPB 65,400, 8.25%, 658, 168 months, 38 payments, BPO 118,000, ITV 55%. D: UPB 62,000, 9.75%, 634, 196 months, 14 payments, BPO 71,000, ITV 87%. Rural county, population under 10,000, and the BPO agent could only find three sales inside 18 months.
A through C I would pay 84 for without much argument. That's around 11.2% to maturity on A and similar on the other two, all with real equity underneath and three to four years of clean pay history. Those are the loans I want.
D is the problem. Fourteen payments is not seasoning to me, the coupon is high because the borrower had nowhere else to go, and 87% ITV in a market where I can't get a clean value is the part I keep turning over. If it goes down I don't think I get out whole after foreclosure costs, and foreclosure timelines vary a lot by state, this one is a judicial state.
So the decision. Do I bid the pool at 81 blended, which is roughly 84 for A through C and high 60s for D, and accept I might blow up a source I like? Or do I pay the 86, take D as the price of admission for the other three, and just size it as a loss I can absorb?
I have $270,000 sitting for this and no other tape in front of me, which is probably the part making me want to say yes.