Choosing between a 19,000 sf suburban building at $61/sf and a 9,400 sf medical office at $148/sf, and I cannot get the math to land the same way twice
The suburban one is a 2001 vintage in a market I know well, Laval, two tenants, 74% occupied, asking $1.16M. The medical office is 100% leased through 2029, single tenant, asking $1.39M in a mixed-use corridor in the Plateau adjacent. At $61/sf I'm looking at a cap rate around 7.4 after I normalize expenses and pull out the seller's optimistic vacancy assumption, which is zero. At $148/sf the medical office is trading at a 6.1 cap on in-place income, but the rent is at market and the tenant has a renewal option at a rate that was set in 2021 and will be below market by the time they exercise it. The suburban building needs probably $180K in near-term capital, new HVAC on the east wing and a roof section that came up in the physical. The medical office needs nothing for three years and then I'm at the mercy of one decision by one tenant. I've been an appraiser long enough to know that single-tenant medical feels safe right up until it isn't. The vacancy risk on the suburban deal is real but it's spread across two tenants and I have some control over it. The renewal option language on the medical office is what keeps me up, not the price.