42 sites under contract. How much of the NOI do I believe?
Under contract at 1.35M on a 42 site park in a lake town, about 25 minutes off a state highway. Mix is 18 full hookup pull throughs, 12 water and electric only, 12 tent sites, plus 6 owner built cabins that rent nightly.
Seller's trailing twelve: 310k gross, 128k NOI. Seasonality is brutal, roughly 71 percent of revenue lands May through September. Twelve of the full hookup sites are on what he calls annual seasonal agreements at 2,800 each, and those people leave their trailers on site all year. Water is a private well, waste is a septic field last inspected four years ago per his file.
My problems with the 128k. He takes no management salary and lives on site, so I have added 38k for a manager couple plus a housing site. He shows 6,400 of repairs across 42 sites and 6 cabins for a full year, which I do not believe. Electric is master metered, so a hot August is his cost, not the guest's.
Rebuilt, I get to about 84k NOI, which at the asking price is a 6.2 cap and I do not want to be at 6.2 on a seasonal asset with a septic question. I have a 21 day inspection window, 9 days left.
The specific decision is whether to retrade to the low 1.1s on the expense rebuild and the septic, or to walk and keep looking. I have not yet had the well output tested. Interested in where people think my rebuilt number is still wrong.