Buyer can't get a loan, and carrying strands the cash for my next flip
Renovated 3/2, 1,450 square feet, in a first ring suburb of a mid size market. All in at 205k including holding. Listed at 269k, best offer 265k from a buyer who has been denied twice, self employed, 26k of verified cash. Nothing else in the pipeline at that price and it's been 41 days.
He asked if I'd carry. I ran a structure: 26.5k down (10%), 238.5k note at 9.25%, 30 year amortization, balloon at month 60. Payment about 1,962.
On paper that's a 60k gain plus 22k of interest a year on money I didn't have to leave in the deal, except I did leave it in the deal, all of it, because the note is my equity now. My next acquisition is a 4 unit I've been circling and I need about 55k of the proceeds by spring.
Three options I'm weighing:
- Carry it, season 12 payments through a servicer, then sell a partial. Gets me nothing until next fall.
- Carry it and sell the whole note as soon as somebody will buy it. Rough math says a low teens yield on a 5 year balloon prices around 86 to 88 of the balance, so call it a 30k discount. That takes my 60k gain down to something I could have gotten by dropping the price 25k and selling to a cash buyer today.
- Drop to 249k and take my chances on a conventional buyer in a slow month.
What I'm least sure about is whether 10% down on a flip I just marked up 30% is a collateral position anybody, including me, should be comfortable with. The 265k is my own retail number and I'm the one who set it.
Balloon length is the other open question. Shorter looks better for my exit and worse for his refinance odds.