My active adult model has line items conventional multifamily never had
Underwriting is my day job and conventional apartments have been my lane for years. First 55-plus deal came across and half my template doesn't apply, so I'm going to ask the beginner questions because I'd rather be wrong here than in committee.
Asset: 120 units, built 2008, age restricted, one and two bedrooms. In-place average rent $1,780. Comparable conventional product of the same size and vintage two miles away is $1,450. Operating expenses are running $7,400 a unit against the $5,900 I'd expect on conventional. Turnover last year was 22 percent, and I'd model 48 on conventional.
So the shape is a rent premium of about 23 percent, an expense load about 25 percent higher, and half the turnover.
What I can't tell:
- Is the $330 premium a product premium or a location premium? If a conventional operator can add a clubhouse and a walking loop and call themselves active adult, the premium is competitive and it erodes. If it's genuinely age restricted with a waiting list, it holds.
- The extra $1,500 a unit of expense. Some of it is amenity payroll and some is a higher standard of grounds and common area upkeep. I don't know the normal split and I don't know which parts I could actually cut without losing the premium.
- Turnover at 22 percent. Lower turnover means less make-ready and less vacancy loss, which I can model. It also means fewer chances to mark to market. Do rents here move mostly on renewals?
Decision is whether I recommend it at the ask or come in based on a conventional exit cap plus 25 basis points. That second option probably loses the deal.