Got a deal in front of me with a 6 percent pref, 80/20 split, and a 36-month projected hold, and the projected IRR still comes out to 16.
I've been staring at that for two days. The pref looks low against what I've seen lately, but the split is generous and the sponsor is projecting an exit at a 5.1 cap in a submarket where the trailing 12 months have been trading closer to 4.8. So either the exit assumption is conservative or they're sandbagging on purpose to look clean at close. The IRR math works if the exit holds, but if the market softens another 30 basis points and the cap rate drifts to 5.4, I'm looking at something closer to 11 percent and the pref starts to feel like the only thing I locked in. 36 months is also aggressive for this cycle. Every full-cycle deal I've dug into lately ran 48 to 60. If this one slips to 48, same cap rate, the IRR drops to maybe 13 and the LP waterfall doesn't change because the promote kicks in at the pref, not at a time hurdle. Has anyone worked through a deal where the hold extension actually helped the sponsor more than the LP?