On a passive data center position, the transformer purchase order date matters more than the timeline slide
Take a passive LP position in a two-building powered shell campus in a secondary Sun Belt market, 24 MW of contracted utility capacity across both buildings. Building A, 12 MW, leased to a large cloud tenant on a 15-year term with fixed bumps. Building B, shell complete but unenergized, with the sponsor's plan to lease it once a second utility feed arrives. Total recap around $180M, an LP position on an 8% pref, 70/30 split over a 12% hurdle, three and a half year hold. The risk that nearly breaks a deal like this is rarely the leased building, it is the timeline on the unbuilt side. A sponsor's slide might show 62 weeks from transformer order to delivery. If the actual purchase order is placed months after that slide was drawn, and the manufacturer's lead time has since slipped to closer to 104 weeks, Building B sits as an empty box carrying taxes, insurance and its share of interest for far longer than modeled. Distributions can go to zero for the better part of a year while the pref simply accrues on paper. The exit in a case like this often comes through a partial sale to an institutional buyer who wants the leased building and the interconnection rights on the unbuilt side, and can still land in the high teens IRR range after the promote despite the dry stretch. The lesson worth keeping is procedural: verify the actual utility load letter and the signed transformer purchase order before funding, not just the timeline slide. A load letter that checks out says nothing about whether the equipment has actually been ordered, and that gap between the slide and the PO date is where the carry risk hides.