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My market made buy and hold look foolproof for about six years, so that's all anyone wanted to learn

I ran two cohorts in 2021 and early 2022 teaching the long-term rental model I'd been using in Sacramento suburbs since 2015. Occupancy was high, rents were climbing, it was genuinely working and I knew the numbers cold. Then rates moved and the math stopped working the way I'd been teaching it, specifically the cash-on-cash assumptions I'd built the whole curriculum around assumed financing in the mid-threes. By fall of 2022 I had students calling me because their deals looked nothing like what we'd modeled. Not one of them was doing anything wrong. The market just moved faster than the course did. I pulled it and refunded the most recent cohort, about $14,000 back out the door, because I couldn't stand behind it anymore. The thing nobody told me about teaching your own active strategy is that when the strategy hits turbulence, the students feel it too and they paid you to be ahead of that. I wasn't. I've been slower to rebuild because I want something with a longer shelf life, probably on the operational and management side since that changes less than acquisition math does. But I think about those 2022 calls a lot. If you're teaching a rate-sensitive model right now, I'd want to know how you're handling the gap between what you built the curriculum on and where financing actually sits today.

3 replies

The Sacramento suburban buy-and-hold window from roughly 2015 to 2021 was genuinely one of the cleaner setups in California, rent-to-price ratios in Elk Grove and Rancho Cordova were actually defensible, which is rare in-state. That specific confluence won't repeat on the same timeline and teaching it as a repeatable framework was always going to have a shelf-life problem.

The refund call was the right one. Fourteen grand is real money but the alternative was students in Roseville or Folsom buying at 7% on pro formas built for 3.5%, and that's a much worse outcome than losing tuition revenue.

Operational curriculum ages better but I'd push back slightly, property management norms in Sacramento shifted meaningfully after AB 1482 kicked in, so even that layer has a policy-change risk baked in if you're teaching California-specific content.

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