Somebody wants me pricing a flip before my license clears

Run his numbers as he stated them. 168 plus 22 is 190. Selling at 232 with 7 percent costs is about 16,200, so 206 out. That's 26,000 gross, before carry, before financing, before the 22 goes to 28 which it will. At his 245 assumption it's 39,000 and he thinks he has a deal.

The entire difference between a fine deal and a marginal one is 13,000 of ARV he's guessing at. He should want the range.

Him saying a range is useless is him asking you to absorb his risk. A range is the accurate output. If he needs a single number for his own decision, he can pick a point inside your range and own that choice.

22,000 for a house that needs everything cosmetic at 1,150 feet, and a one bath. What's his flooring number? Paint, LVP through the whole thing, kitchen, the bath, fixtures, exterior. I've seen that scope land at 30 to 35 when the labor's hired out, and closer to 22 if he's swinging the hammer himself. Ask which one he means, because it changes the deal more than your ARV does.

One bath in a three bed is a resale drag in a lot of markets. If those 221 to 232 comps were two bath and his is one bath, your low 230s is optimistic and the real number could sit under 225. Check the bath count on all four.

@trellis is right and it's the detail I'd have gone looking for first. @halyard when you pull the comps again, list bed, bath, square feet, garage, and date closed side by side. Nine times out of ten one column explains the outlier and you stop arguing about the average.

On the writing question, I'd give him the comp table with your notes and let the table speak. A table of facts is different from a signed opinion of value, though where that line sits is a state statute question and your board will tell you.

If he's borrowing, his lender will order its own valuation and that number is the one that decides how much he can draw. Terms and how the valuation gets done differ by lender and he should get it in writing, but the point is that your number isn't the last word. It's the one that decides whether he wastes an appraisal fee finding out.

The thing I'd tell your friend is that at 168 on a 232 house needing 28 of work, he's paying about 72 percent of ARV before repairs. That is not a discount. The strategy assumes you buy the discount, you don't create it with paint.

Do the friend job carefully or don't do it. Five years of running a service business has taught me that the client who demands certainty is the same client who reminds you of your number when it goes wrong. Give him the table, say what the cluster shows, and let him decide.

221, 229, 232 in seven months in one pocket is a better data set than most people get. I work rural markets where the nearest comp is a mile out and two years old. Your instinct that it's low 230s is supported by the only three sales that match. He wants 245 because he needs 245.