For a first gap position, does the borrower's track record matter more than the equity cushion?
I've been reading gap deals for a few months without funding one, and the two lenders I've talked to sort the world in opposite ways.
The first one underwrites the collateral almost entirely. He wants the senior balance plus his piece under some number he trusts against the as-is value, and if that math works he says he doesn't much care who the borrower is, because a bad borrower still leaves him a house. The second one told me the collateral math is the easy part and everyone gets it roughly right. What he pays attention to is whether the borrower has actually finished and exited projects like this one before, because in a subordinate spot he gets paid out of the exit, and a foreclosure behind a senior lien is a slow and expensive way to be right.
I can argue both. Cushion is measurable, it's on paper, and it doesn't change its story when the job runs long. Track record is squishy, I have to take the borrower's word for a lot of it, and past exits aren't a promise of the next one. But the second lender's point about being repaid out of the exit sticks with me, because in a default my remedy is genuinely worse than the senior's, and I'd be paying to protect a position that only pays after they're whole.
So for someone placing their first gap piece, where should the weight go. Curious whether the people actually doing this split the way the two lenders did.
Placing your first gap position, where does most of the weight go?
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