Comparing a $342/sf CBD office recap against a $92/sf suburban deal with a reserve that looks a third short
Two office offerings worth comparing, since they sit at nearly opposite ends of the spectrum. Deal A. Recapitalization of a 2016-built 190,000 square foot tower in a strong CBD. 91 percent leased, weighted average lease term 6.4 years. LP basis works to $342 a foot. Going-in cap 6.1 on in-place NOI. 55 percent loan to cost, fixed for five, 8 percent preferred return to LPs, seven year target hold. The sponsor's argument is prime scarcity: expectations that available prime space tightens through the end of 2026, with room to push face rents 12 to 15 percent on the 2028 and 2029 rollovers. Deal B. 1997 suburban four-story, 165,000 feet, 54 percent leased, all cash at $92 a foot. TI and leasing reserve of $3.9M, which is $24 a foot across the whole building. Pro forma stabilizes at 82 percent occupancy with $26 face NNN rents in year four. The problem with B is the reserve. Getting from 54 to 82 percent requires about 46,000 feet of new leasing. At packages typically quoted on second-tier suburban space, call it $60 to $75 a foot of tenant improvement allowance plus commissions, that is $3.2M to $4.0M on the new space alone, before a single renewal on the existing 89,000 feet. $3.9M does not cover both. The problem with A is knowing whether the scarcity story is already priced into the 6.1 cap. If it is, a buyer pays for the recovery in advance and carries downside into a 2029 rollover in a market that will have changed again. A reserve that undershoots by roughly a million dollars is the kind of gap that usually explains why a cheap-looking deal stays cheap.