$342/sf against $92/sf, and I think the cheap one's reserve is a third short
I'm on my list-building stage, so I'm reading offerings rather than signing them. Two came in the same week and they're almost perfect opposites. I'd like people to tear into how I'm sizing up both.
Deal A. Recapitalization of a 2016-built 190,000 square foot tower in a strong CBD. 91 percent leased, weighted average lease term 6.4 years. LP basis works to $342 a foot. Going-in cap 6.1 on in-place NOI. 55 percent loan to cost, fixed for five, 8 percent preferred return to LPs, seven year target hold. Sponsor's argument is prime scarcity: they cite the expectation that available prime space gets tighter through the end of 2026 and say they can push face rents 12 to 15 percent on the 2028 and 2029 rollovers.
Deal B. 1997 suburban four-story, 165,000 feet, 54 percent leased, all cash at $92 a foot. TI and leasing reserve of $3.9M, which is $24 a foot across the whole building. Pro forma stabilizes at 82 percent occupancy with $26 face NNN rents in year four.
My problem with B is the reserve. To get from 54 to 82 percent they need about 46,000 feet of new leasing. At the packages I keep seeing quoted on second-tier suburban space, call it $60 to $75 a foot of tenant improvement allowance plus commissions, that's $3.2M to $4.0M on the new space alone, before a single renewal on the existing 89,000 feet. $3.9M doesn't cover both.
My problem with A is that I can't tell if the scarcity story is already in the 6.1 cap. If it is, I'm paying for the recovery in advance and my downside is a 2029 rollover in a market that changed again.
The decision is which one I keep tracking and which I drop. Right now I want to drop both, which usually means I've missed something on one of them.