10 to 15 percent is the quoted range for pref, so where inside it does a first-time pref investor belong
Everything I read puts pref equity returns in roughly the 10 to 15 percent band. That's a wide band for a single asset class and I don't yet have a feel for what moves you across it.
The two stories I've been told conflict. One is that the low end is the low end for a reason, meaning stabilized multifamily with a sponsor who has been through cycles, moderate combined leverage, real cash pay from operations. You take 10 or 11 because the deal is boring and the money shows up. The high end is where you're pricing hair, a transitional asset, a sponsor with a thinner balance sheet, coverage that doesn't work until lease-up, and the extra 400 basis points is compensation for a genuinely worse position.
The other story is that the spread inside that band is mostly about deal size and access. Big institutional pref gets bid down to 10 and change because a lot of capital is chasing the maturity wall refinancings, and the 14 to 15 percent paper is smaller, messier deals that never see a competitive process. Under that story, going up the band doesn't buy you more risk-adjusted return, it just buys you deals nobody else wanted to look at.
If the first is right, someone new should probably start at the low end and pay for quality. If the second is right, the low end is where you get the least compensation for still being wiped out ahead of the senior lender, and the new investor's real job is sourcing rather than pricing.
Where do you land?
Starting out in pref, which end of the 10 to 15 percent range would you target?
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