Split 48k into four tranches and only three of them ever fired

Where did 22 percent industrial come from? You said regional permit counts, and the REITs you bought own national portfolios. How did you bridge a local supply read to a national landlord? I'm asking because that's exactly the step I keep skipping when I build a target and then can't defend it a month later.

If tranche four had fired at the highest print in those nine months, what does the 6.4 become? The skip condition is carrying a lot of the result and it triggered on a band width you chose yourself. I'd want to see the same rule run with a 5 point band instead of 3 before I copied it.

Check whose classification map your funds use. Two products can both report a data center weight and mean different things, because some index providers file data centers under specialized REITs and others park part of that exposure with technology infrastructure. One fund I read through reclassified mid-year and put it in a supplement, not the summary page. Your 20 percent data center could be 14 or 25 depending on the map. Worth pinning down before you call a weight on target.

36k at 3.7 is about 1,330 a year, you collected 1,020, which fits if the average dollar was invested roughly nine months. The math holds.

The number I'd want next is what the sleeve keeps after tax, since REIT distributions carry a mix of characters and a lot of it lands as ordinary income. That varies by the fund and by you, so price it with a tax professional rather than a spreadsheet from a forum.

The result rests on one assumption worth naming: that the gap between public REIT pricing and private real estate marks closes on a timeline you can sit through. That gap is unusually wide right now and has stayed wide longer than in most cycles, which is the whole reason the deployment case looks attractive. Convergence has two directions though. Public prices can rise toward private marks, or private marks can fall toward public prices. Your sleeve only benefits from the first path, and the second path can produce a closed gap with no gain to you.

On the mechanics of your rule, the skip condition works because your bands are defined against target weights rather than against price. That means it fires on portfolio drift, and drift is caused by relative performance between sectors. In a period where everything moves together on rates, the bands will almost never fire and the rule stops being a deployment discipline at all. Test what your rule does in a correlated drawdown before you trust it in the next one.

On the sector reads, permit and starts data is a decent leading input for industrial and less useful for data centers, where the pipeline is dominated by pre-leased build-to-suit that never shows up as speculative supply. Also worth pulling the weighted average debt maturity and floating-rate share for each name, because two industrial REITs with similar portfolios can behave very differently through a rate move. The character of REIT distributions for tax purposes depends on facts specific to you, so confirm that part with a licensed tax professional.

Did you look at average daily volume on the healthcare and senior housing names before you sized them? I got into a smaller specialized name last year at what looked like a reasonable price and found out the spread was wide enough that a 9k position cost me real money to unwind. Liquidity is the reason you picked public in the first place, so it seems worth confirming per ticker rather than assuming it because it trades on an exchange.

Nine months without touching it. I can't do that, which is why my REIT money keeps turning into earnest money.

Sector label tells you less than the debt stack does. Pull the weighted average maturity and the floating-rate percentage for each holding, then look at what comes due in the next 24 months. A name refinancing a big tranche at today's coupons has a very different next two years than one that termed out early, and both get sold in the same rate move. That's where I'd spend the next hour of work on this sleeve.

Slow question and I'd rather ask it than nod along. If the buildings kept collecting the same rent through those weeks, what actually made the sleeve fall 7 percent? I know the answer is rates. I can't yet explain the mechanism to someone else without hand waving, and until I can I don't think I understand it.

The skip condition is the only part of this I'd steal. Everything else was a rate call that went your way and you're honest enough to say so.

Supply drop matches what I see. Concrete and steel bids for spec industrial in my market have basically stopped coming across my desk, and the ones that do are 2027 deliveries at best.

My worry is different from yours. Every allocator reads the same starts forecast, so the tightening is arguably in the price already and what you're buying is the rate call. Did you find anything that suggested the supply story wasn't priced yet, or did you take the position knowing you couldn't tell?