152 units, 8% pref, 50/50 back end. The promote nearly doubles at year 7 and the LP IRR falls.
Purchase $18.2M, 152 units built in 1984, $3.1M of capex over about 30 months. Total equity $6.9M with $500k of that mine. Waterfall is 8% pref, 70/30 to a 13% LP IRR, then 50/50 above. American style, distributions as available.
Two exits I keep running.
Year 5: stabilized NOI $1.42M, exit at a 5.5, gross $25.8M, 2% cost of sale, loan paid down to $13.6M. LP net IRR comes out 13.4%, multiple 1.72x, my promote around $1.05M.
Year 7: NOI $1.56M, same 5.5, gross $28.3M. LP net IRR 12.1%, multiple 1.94x, promote around $1.6M.
So two extra years pay me about 55 percent more and pay my investors a worse annual number on a bigger absolute one. That's the whole problem in one line and I can't argue myself out of it.
The debt makes it worse. Bridge, 36 months with two 12-month extensions, extensions conditioned on a debt service test and a fresh rate cap purchase. If I want to reach year 7 I need an agency takeout somewhere in month 30 to 36, and I'd be sizing that takeout off NOI I haven't earned yet.
What I can't settle: do I put the 5-year hold in the offering and keep the extension optional, or say plainly that my base case is 7 and let people price it. Second open item is whether to crystallize the promote at the refi or leave everything to sale. Crystallizing at refi pays me sooner and looks grabby on a first offering under my own name.
The decision is the term that goes in the PPM. Raise opens in three weeks.