When evaluating a sponsor's track record, what actually counts as a track record
From the debt side, the first question worth asking about any sponsor's deck is what happens if a deal goes badly, not what happens if it goes well, and track record is where that question gets hardest to answer cleanly. Take a sponsor's one page summary: eleven deals, $84M of assets, average IRR 21%, no capital lost. The number sounds good until the fine print shows the average is calculated on realized deals only, and nine of the eleven are still held. That means the 21% comes from two exits, both in a window when almost anything bought and sold looked smart. There are two honest camps on what to do with that. One says only realized deals count, because until money actually comes back, a mark is just a number the sponsor made up, which is harsh on anyone who bought in a strong year and is still grinding through the hold. The other says realized only is survivor bias in reverse, and the better read is the current condition of the unrealized deals themselves, distributions paused or not, loan maturities coming up, whether there have been capital calls. The more reliable measure in practice is a blend: weight realized deals heavily but discount them by how favorable the exit window was, and treat the unrealized book as the real test of the sponsor by asking for loan maturity dates, coverage ratios, and whether any capital calls have already happened. A number to be skeptical of on its own is any average IRR presented without the realized versus unrealized split clearly labeled.
What do you weight most in a sponsor's track record?
25 votes