If I'm reading a sponsor's track record, what actually counts as a track record?
I work mostly on the debt side, so when someone hands me a deal the first question I ask is what happens if it goes badly rather than what happens if it goes well. Track record is where I keep getting stuck.
A sponsor sent me a one page summary: 11 deals, $84M of assets, average IRR 21%, no capital lost. Sounds good. Then I noticed the averages are on realized deals only, and nine of the eleven are still held. So the 21% is two exits from 2019 and 2021, when almost anything bought and sold in that window looked smart.
So what's the honest measure? One camp says only realized deals count, because until money comes back it's a mark the sponsor made up. That's harsh on anyone who bought in 2021 and is still grinding. The other camp says realized-only is survivor bias in reverse, and you should be reading the current deals and their actual condition, distributions paused or not, loan maturities, whether they've had capital calls.
What would you want to see, and what number do you refuse to look at?
What do you weight most in a sponsor's track record?
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