I got a $14k assignment fee in Phoenix and a $6k one in Memphis in the same week and now I can't decide which market to push harder

The math you're doing isn't wrong but I think you're framing the wrong variable. Net per hour of actual work is the number that matters, not the fee size, and by your own accounting Memphis is already winning that race by a wide margin. $900 in list costs plus four months of dial time plus a split on the back end versus $300 and a clean close in week two, the Phoenix deal probably paid you less per hour than a part-time job. I've seen the same thing play out in multifamily: a 12-unit in a secondary Ohio market outperformed a 4-unit in Denver for me strictly because carrying costs and deal friction were so much lower that the smaller gross number compounded faster. The buyers ghosting after asking for inspection reports is a Phoenix acquisitions problem, not a you problem, those buyers are shopping 30 deals at once because the inventory exists. Decisive buyer pools are worth protecting once you find them. I'd go deeper in Memphis, get the system tight, and only layer in Phoenix if you can get your cost-per-contract under $400 there, because right now that market is eating your margin before the deal even closes.

Your Memphis number is actually telling you something bigger than the dollar amount. Four months and $900 in spend to net maybe $11-12k after the split versus two weeks and $300 clean is not even close when you annualize it. Run that out: if Memphis is giving you a deal every 5-6 weeks at $5-6k net, you're looking at $50k+ a year in that market alone, and your cost per deal is low enough that a dry month doesn't wreck you. Phoenix at one deal per four months, even at $14k gross, is harder to build a real pipeline on unless you've got the cash reserves to stay alive between closings. The cycle time isn't just a nuisance, it's a capital problem.

The one thing I have never seen work is trying to force Phoenix-style ARV logic onto a mid-tier market acquisition strategy. People try to justify chasing the bigger number by saying they'll just "tighten the criteria" or "get more disciplined on offers," and what actually happens is they keep missing on price in Memphis because they're mentally anchored to Phoenix spreads, and then neither market produces. You end up in this weird limbo where you're half-committed to both and you've got no real rhythm in either one. If your Memphis buyers are moving fast and you already cracked the list strategy under $300, that's a repeatable system. Phoenix might be worth coming back to once you've got a real cash cushion, but right now you don't have a pipeline problem, you have a focus problem.

Memphis ROI on time and dollars spent is not even close.