Combined coverage is 0.83x on day one with a reserve carrying the rest
Working through a pref position on a 140 unit 1980s value-add and I keep landing back on the same problem, which is that the position doesn't cover itself out of operations for the first two years and I have to decide what that's worth in price.
Numbers as presented:
Value $34M, in-place NOI $1.72M, so about a 5.06% cap on today's income. New senior is $22.4M at 6.55%, interest only three years, so $1.47M of annual interest. Cash after senior is $250k.
Pref ask is $5.6M. Proposed 10% current, 4% accruing, 1.30x minimum multiple, 36 months. Current pay is $560k a year against $250k of available cash, so 0.45x coverage on my piece and 0.83x combined against total obligations if I count the full 14%.
The gap is funded by a $1.1M interest reserve carved out of my own proceeds. At a $310k annual shortfall that reserve runs about 42 months, which is longer than the term, so on paper it works. Sponsor's plan is $2.1M of capex, 96 units at roughly $8,000 a door, NOI to $2.35M by month 30.
My last dollar is $28M on $34M, so 82%.
The exit test I ran: to be whole at 1.30x I need $22.4M plus $7.28M, so $29.68M net, call it $30.3M gross at 2% costs. At a 6.25% exit cap that requires NOI of $1.89M. So NOI has to grow about 10% over three years just to get me back par plus my minimum, against a plan that says 37%.
The decision is whether I price this at 14% total with the 1.30x or push to 15% with a 1.35x and a bigger reserve, and whether funding my own current pay out of my own principal is a structure I should be doing at all.