A preferred position that runs 0.83x combined coverage on day one, carried by a reserve
Take a pref position on a 140 unit 1980s value-add where the position doesn't cover itself out of operations for the first two years, and the question becomes what that gap is worth in price. Say the numbers come in as follows. Value 34M, in-place NOI 1.72M, about a 5.06% cap on today's income. New senior is 22.4M at 6.55%, interest only three years, so 1.47M of annual interest. Cash after senior is 250k. Pref ask is 5.6M. Proposed 10% current, 4% accruing, 1.30x minimum multiple, 36 months. Current pay is 560k a year against 250k of available cash, so 0.45x coverage on that piece and 0.83x combined against total obligations counting the full 14%. The gap gets funded by a 1.1M interest reserve carved out of the pref holder's own proceeds. At a 310k annual shortfall that reserve runs about 42 months, longer than the term, so on paper it works. Sponsor's plan is 2.1M of capex, 96 units at roughly 8,000 a door, NOI to 2.35M by month 30. Last dollar sits at 28M on 34M, so 82%. Run the exit test: to be whole at 1.30x the position needs 22.4M plus 7.28M, so 29.68M net, call it 30.3M gross at 2% costs. At a 6.25% exit cap that requires NOI of 1.89M. NOI has to grow about 10% over three years just to get back par plus the minimum, against a plan that projects 37%. The decision worth working through is whether to price this at 14% total with the 1.30x or push to 15% with a 1.35x and a bigger reserve, and whether funding the current pay out of the position's own principal is a structure worth using at all.