Anyone who bought self-storage in a secondary Georgia market in the last four years, what did occupancy actually look like in months 7 through 18

Concentration risk is real and you named it correctly. The assumption doing the most work in the seller's 89% figure is that those four units stay occupied past closing. At a 48-unit facility, one relationship holding 14 units means your effective vacancy swings from manageable to severe on a single phone call. That is a structural problem, not a quirk, regardless of how legitimate the landscaping operation is.

A few things worth pulling before you go further. Gate access logs are the right call, but pair them with payment timing. Consistent on-time payments from those four units over 12 months tell a different story than two months of catches-up. Also ask for the lease terms on all four units: month-to-month is a flag in this context. A motivated seller papering occupancy before a sale tends to keep those leases short and cheap.

Secondary Georgia markets outside a primary employment anchor are sensitive to exactly this dynamic. A single-business tenant at that scale is not inherently wrong for a small rural facility, but it changes how you underwrite. Run your pro forma at 63% occupancy, the floor if that relationship breaks, and see if the deal still works at that cash flow. If it does not close at that number, the price needs to reflect the concentration risk.

The risk you have not mentioned is what happens to the owner-tenant relationship post-sale. If the landscaping tenant's favorable rate or informal arrangement was personal to the seller, he may not renew with you on the same terms, or at all. That is worth a direct conversation with the tenant before you proceed, not after contract.

For baseline on what anchor-tenant concentration looks like in facilities this size, the Rena strategy guide for self-storage passive hold has the operational benchmarks. Check the Guide tab on the strategy page.

What are the lease structures on those four units, and do any of them have below-market rates?

That 29 percent sitting in one relationship is the number that matters, and your instinct to pull gate logs is exactly right, but I'd push further and ask for the actual payment ledger on those four units going back 24 months, not just current rent roll. In my experience reading through offering docs, friendly-tenant occupancy inflation shows up in the payment history as irregular deposits, partial months, or gaps that the seller backdated on the roll. The landscaping business explanation is plausible but it's also the most common cover story I've heard for exactly this setup. What I'd also want to know is whether those units are on month-to-month or if there's an actual signed lease with a term, because a lease at least gives you a window to plan around if the relationship unravels post-close. 63 percent stabilized occupancy in a secondary Monroe County-sized market could take 18 to 24 months to recover depending on what else opened in the corridor since 2021, and that changes your whole acquisition price math. What rate per square foot is he quoting those four units at compared to the rest of the roll?

63 percent stabilized is a totally different acquisition than 89.

Four units in one name at a 48-unit facility is not normal, it is a structural dependency.

Here is how the number moves. Say the facility grosses $7,200 a month at 89 percent occupancy on average unit revenue of $150. That anchor tenant's four units represent roughly $600 of that, or about 8 percent of gross. Manageable on paper. But the seller's story has him renting across two or three unit sizes, which suggests he is not in four 5x5s, he is in larger climate or drive-up units that probably rent at $175 to $225. Run it at $200 average and his four units are $800 a month, closer to 11 percent of gross, and the facility drops to 73 percent economic occupancy the day he leaves, not 63 percent physical.

The gate log request is correct. What you also want is a copy of the actual lease agreements on those four units, specifically the month-to-month versus fixed term status and whether any are receiving a discount tied to the owner relationship. A landlord who needs to hold an occupancy number before a sale sometimes trades rate for stability, which means you are buying a yield that disappears at market rate when that tenant re-signs.

The other thing worth pulling is any units that have been vacant longer than 90 days prior to this tenant's move-in dates, because the sequence matters. A facility that filled three empty units with one known contact six months before listing is a different situation than a customer who organically expanded over three years.

What does the rent roll show for the lease start dates on those four units relative to when the seller listed?

Secondary Georgia markets are where I see sellers dress up rent rolls the most, because nobody's pulling gate logs on a facility outside Forsyth the way they would in Atlanta. The one thing I have never seen work is buying on a seller's verbal explanation for a concentration like this. Every time someone accepts "he's a landscaping guy, he needs the space," they spend the next 18 months finding out the relationship was the product, not the tenant's actual need. Payment history on those four units matters less to me than when they were rented, honestly. If three of those four units show move-in dates inside the six months before listing, that's staging and you can walk without another question. What's the spread between what that landscaping tenant is paying per unit and what the other tenants are paying, is he on the same rate or did the owner cut him a deal to hold the number up?

The landscaping business explanation is plausible, but the thing to price is the lease structure on those four units, specifically whether they are month-to-month or on a term, because month-to-month with a single operator at that concentration is a different underwriting number than a 12-month lease with a personal guarantee. Confirm that directly with the lease documents, not the rent roll.

What market rate looks like for the remaining 34 units matters as much as the occupancy figure, because if the owner has been keeping that anchor relationship happy with below-market rates, your pro forma on stabilization is off from the start. I'd pull comparable street rates from nearby facilities before you frame any offer.

What does the rent roll show those four units are paying per square foot relative to the other tenants?

Forsyth is not a market where 89 percent is easy to hold organically, so if that number is real it should be explainable without a single landscaper carrying it. The ask I'd add to your list: pull the actual bank deposits or at minimum get three months of bank statements alongside the payment history, because a rent roll PDF tells you what someone typed, not what cleared. I bought into a Fresno sub-to and the first thing I learned was that paper occupancy and cash occupancy are two different things and sellers know that gap exists. What's his asking price relative to what a 63-percent-occupied facility actually pencils at, because if the spread is thin at stabilized occupancy the whole underwrite falls apart before you even model lease-up?

The gate log request is right, but pair it with payment method on those four units specifically, because cash or check paid by the owner himself is the tell that separates a real commercial tenant from a favor arrangement. On the underwriting side, the number that matters most here is economic occupancy rather than physical occupancy: if those four units are paying below street rate, the seller is inflating yield twice, once with the headcount and once with the rent figure. What rate per square foot are those units showing on the roll compared to the other units?

One thing worth pricing before you go further is what the street rate on those four units is versus what the landscaping tenant actually pays, because if he is on a discounted rate that the owner justified as a long-term relationship favor, the economic occupancy is worse than the physical number even before you model his exit.

What is the net rentable square footage those four units represent relative to the facility total? If they are 10x20s or larger, the revenue concentration is heavier than the unit count suggests, and that changes how you stress-test the 63 percent floor scenario.

What's the month-to-month vs. long-term split on those four units?

Forsyth is small enough that one landscaping operation with a falling out or a lease on a new yard could genuinely crater you, and 63 percent in that market is not a stabilized asset, it is a turnaround you are paying stabilized price for. I underwrote a 40-lot park in rural Ohio where the seller had three related-party lots dragging the occupancy number up, and I didn't catch it until my attorney flagged the lease signatures during due diligence, cost me eight weeks and about $3,400 in fees to get to the answer I should have found in week one. Payment history on those four units matters more than the gate logs honestly, because a friendly tenant can walk through the gate every week and still be two months behind in a handshake arrangement with the owner. What does the actual lease on those four units look like, month-to-month or term, and is there a personal guarantee or is it just the LLC name on the paperwork?

Single-tenant concentration at that scale is not normal even for a small facility, and the landscaping explanation is the kind of answer that only holds if the business is real, local, and not connected to the owner. Pull a Georgia Secretary of State business search on the name before you do anything else. If the LLC address is the owner's property or the registered agent is the owner's attorney, you have your answer without needing the gate logs.

The number I would add to your request is monthly payment timestamps going back 24 months, not just proof of payment. A friendly tenant who is papering occupancy often pays in one lump or in irregular batches that do not match the lease dates. That pattern will not show on a rent roll PDF but it will show on a bank statement or a property management ledger sorted by date received. While you are there, ask what unit sizes those four units are. If a landscaper genuinely needs storage, he wants a 10x20 or a 10x30, not four 5x10s spread across the unit mix to hit a headcount number. The size distribution tells you whether the story matches the use. What property management software is the seller running, because if it is a name-brand system like Storable or Sitelink, an export of the full ledger is a 30-second pull and any reluctance to produce it at that point is itself a flag?

Month 11 is usually where you find out what the real number is.

Gate logs are good but I'd push harder on the actual payment ledger for those four units specifically, not just confirmation they're current. In Gainesville I watched a seller show a rent roll where the anchor looked fine on paper and then we found out in due diligence that the owner had been crediting the guy's rent in exchange for yard work and gravel deliveries to the site, so the cash was never actually moving. That arrangement held for three years and nobody flagged it because current-is-current on a PDF. At 48 units you're running a thin enough operation that one relationship like this isn't a quirk, it's a structural dependency, and the question isn't whether the landscaping story is true, it's what your pro forma looks like if you underwrite those four units as vacant from day one and then model lease-up at whatever the market rate actually is in Forsyth. What's the asking price relative to what a 63 percent stabilized asset would justify, because if the spread is small you don't need the anchor story to be a lie for the deal to not work?

Ask him what the landscaping guy pays per unit versus your other tenants.

One thing worth separating out: even if the landscaping explanation is completely true, a business tenant using multiple units for equipment storage is a different credit profile than a residential renter moving boxes. Business storage needs change with the business, and a landscaping operation that picks up a commercial lease or a larger yard can vacate all four units in a single month with no lease term protecting you.

Ask for twelve months of bank-stamped deposit records tied to that account, not just the rent roll, so you can see whether those four units paid consistently or ran arrears that the owner quietly cleared before listing.

What is the asking cap rate, and do you know whether the seller is pricing it on current occupancy or on some stabilized assumption above where it actually sits?

The landscaping explanation might be true, and it still doesn't fix the structural problem: a 48-unit facility has no business carrying a single-relationship anchor that size, because the asset's income story and that relationship's continuity are now the same bet. What I'd want to know before anything else is whether those four units are month-to-month or on a longer term, because a month-to-month tenant who represents 29 percent of occupancy is effectively a lease expiration the seller didn't disclose. What does the actual lease documentation show for those four units?

One commercial tenant holding four units at a 48-unit facility is not automatically a flag, but the underwrite has to treat those four units as vacant until you have 12 months of payment history showing no gaps, no comp'd periods, and no owner-side credits dressed as rent. The landscaping explanation is common and sometimes true, but the question is whether those units would re-lease at market rate inside 90 days if he left, and in a secondary Monroe County market the answer depends heavily on whether your competition has available units right now. Pull the current street rates and vacancy at the two or three nearest competitors before you price the downside, because if the market is 85 percent occupied across the board, that four-unit exposure re-leases in a reasonable timeframe and the math holds. If the market is sitting at 70 percent, you are buying a 63 percent facility with no near-term absorption story. Beyond the gate logs and payment history you already asked for, I would want the owner's ledger showing how those four units were billed month to month, specifically whether the rate ever changed or was held flat while other units moved up, because a sweetheart rate is a second form of artificial occupancy that the rent roll will not show. What does the nearest Climate-controlled competitor's street rate look like right now versus what this operator is charging those four units?

Never bought in Forsyth specifically but I'm watching a 36-unit outside Rome that had almost the same pattern on the rent roll.

Gate logs will tell you if the guy actually uses all four units or if two of them haven't been touched in six months, which would be the tell.

I bought a 34-unit place outside of Cookeville in 2021, and months 7 through 18 were the roughest stretch because I had two tenants who each held three units and one of them relocated about 14 months in. Dropped me from 82 to around 71 percent in a week and I was already stretched on the note. What saved me was that his units were all 10x10s and I re-rented two of the three within 45 days because that size moves in that market. What size are those four units the landscaper has?

If they're all 10x20 or bigger you've got a slower re-rent window on top of the concentration problem, and the pro forma the seller built off 89 percent is basically fiction.

In small-town storage, one commercial tenant holding multiple units is common enough that it is not automatically a red flag, but the exposure math you ran is exactly what matters: at 48 units, any single relationship above 15 percent of revenue deserves its own underwriting scenario where you assume it goes to zero on month one.

The piece I would add to your gate log request is payment timing on those four units specifically, because a seller who is papering occupancy for a sale will often carry a friendly tenant's balance informally, meaning the rent roll shows current but the bank deposits tell a different story if you get 12 months of actual statements and reconcile the deposits against the roll line by line.

What does the per-unit rent on the landscaper's units look like relative to the other commercial-size units in the facility, and is he on a standard month-to-month or does he have any kind of written lease with a term?

Forsyth has maybe 12,000 people and I would want to know how many other facilities are within a ten-mile radius before I even got to the rent roll question, because if there are three competitors and one of them just dropped rates, that landscaper has options and your 63 percent scenario is already optimistic.

On the anchor tenant thing specifically: I bought into a 60-unit passive deal outside Macon two years ago and the operator flagged one commercial tenant holding five units before we closed, and that tenant was still there at month 22 and paying on time, so it is not automatically a walk-away. What made it fine was that we had 24 months of ACH records showing no gaps, not a PDF. The difference between a legitimate commercial user and a favor arrangement almost always shows up in payment timing. Friendly-tenant papering tends to have a lot of end-of-month cash payments or small irregular amounts that sort of add up to rent. If those four units show clean ACH or card charges hitting on the same date every month for two-plus years, the landscaping story holds. If the history is spotty or recent or cash, that is your answer without needing to ask the seller another question.

Gate logs are necessary but they won't tell you if those four units were ever late, ever waived, or ever paid in cash because the owner wanted them off the books. Payment history by unit number, not just the roll-up deposit summary, is what I'd push for, and if he resists that specific ask the conversation is basically over.

I got burned on something adjacent in 2021, a small flex warehouse outside Noblesville where two tenants accounted for 61 percent of the rent. Seller said both were long-term, both were on month-to-month. One left four months after close and I spent the better part of a year at 38 percent economic occupancy while I found replacements. Cost me roughly $34k in carry I hadn't modeled. The landscaping guy having four units isn't automatically disqualifying, but month-to-month versus a lease with a term and a penalty clause is a completely different risk profile and I'd want to know which one you're looking at before anything else.

What does the actual lease on those four units look like, and is there a personal guarantee attached or is it just the business name?

One thing worth separating here: a commercial tenant holding multiple units is not unusual at a facility this size, but the question is whether his rent reflects market rate or whether the owner discounted those four units to keep a friend on the roll and inflate the number. Pull the per-unit monthly on those four specifically and compare it to the other units in the same size class. If he is paying, say, $80 on a unit the owner lists to the public at $110, that discount is doing two jobs at once, keeping a friendly occupant in place and masking what a stranger would actually pay.

The 90-day gate log is the right ask, but the payment ledger matters more than the access record for those specific units, because a landscaper who parks equipment and never really comes and goes could show low gate activity that looks suspicious even if he is a legitimate tenant. What you want to see is whether those four units have ever been late, whether there are any written lease terms different from the standard month-to-month the other tenants are on, and whether any of the three names are related to the owner's LLC or family. Have you pulled the owner's entity through the Georgia Secretary of State and cross-referenced the tenant names against it?

The move-in dates matter as much as the logs. If those four units all started within 60 days of each other and around the same time the listing went active, that tells you the occupancy was engineered for the sale, not built over time.

What is the asking price relative to current gross revenue at the stated 89 percent, and what does that number become at 63 percent? That spread is what decides whether you have a workable deal with a discount negotiation or a deal you walk from entirely.

What monthly rate are those four units renting at compared to your pro forma street rate, because if the owner discounted them to keep a friendly tenant happy, you are underwriting phantom income at a number the market will not replace.

A single commercial tenant holding 29 percent of a small facility is not automatically disqualifying, but the replacement timeline is what changes the math. A landscaper can vacate in 30 days, and in a secondary Georgia market you should model how long it took the facility to lease comparable unit sizes historically, not how long the owner says it took.

The misconception worth correcting is that anchor tenants in small storage facilities are automatically a red flag: in markets this size, one or two commercial tenants holding multiple units is common and sometimes a stabilizing feature, because they tend to sign longer informal arrangements and pay reliably. The question is whether this particular relationship was organic or manufactured in the 90 days before listing.

Pull the payment ledger on those four units going back 24 months, not 90 days, because a seller who is papering occupancy will have clean recent history and messier older history where the pattern started.

What does the rent roll show on unit sizes for those four units, and are they priced at market rate or slightly below what a stranger off the street would pay?